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Civil Society Concerns over not Undertaking Practical Measures towards Climate Change are Justified

05.07.2014
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It is no longer possible to prevent all climate change, all efforts aimed at mitigation: to mitigate the rate to the degree that the ecosystems can adapt to the change.
For that purpose has been created the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which aims to restrain the noticeable pace of climate change, but because of insufficient readiness of Parties to the Convention, especially those countries, which have a greater ratio of greenhouse gases global emissions, tangible results have not been recorded yet.
After years of working in this direction, knowledgeable professionals consider the Convention as a bureaucratic and explain the emerged situation with the fact that the complex problem is attempted to solve in a system, which has created the same system based on the natural resources overexploitation.
In this case, it is about the carbon that was once absorbed from the atmosphere and accumulated in the crust of the Earth in the form of oil, gas and coal and today as a result of intensive development of the industry has been extensively emitted to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, unable to be absorbed by the land plants and ocean plankton and accumulated.
The “acceptable” threshold for the global average temperature increase was established in 2007, and that decision has no legal force yet. At the pre-industrial period 2oC of increase in average global climate temperature is the maximum limit, in which case the world is able to withstand the effects of climate change. Moreover the island states still require that the increase does not exceed 1,5oC, Armenia also as a vulnerable with mountain ecosystems country has adopt 1,5oC of increase. The facts prove that the measures taken to reduce global emissions, even the 2oC threshold cast doubt. If today emissions will be cut by all countries, which is a fantastic thing, however, the temperature will increase to 1,5oC. The issue focuses on what kind should be global efforts, what ideas should be invested to achieve the goal. The complaint of the civil society representing organizations is justified, because as a result of 20-year-long negotiations and actions the cart almost does not move.
The Kyoto Protocol, the main document aimed at reducing the emissions, defines only the obligations of the developed countries. At the first stage was planned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5 % compared with 1990 levels, which was a restrictive mechanism.
In 2013 launched the 2nd period, in which from the developed countries participated only the European Union countries, Norway, Australia, a few other countries, which emissions consist only 14 per cent of the global emissions.
The major emitting developing countries such as Russia, Japan, New Zealand, informed they would not participate in the second period, the United States has not participated once again, and Canada in general came out of the protocol. This means that the Kyoto Protocol makes its significance too formal.
Armenia launched the process of the second period of ratification of the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, which was planned for 2013-2020. However, a total of 144 instruments of acceptance are required for the entry into force of the amendment. During 1 year it was ratified by only 11 countries. Along with this process, developing countries have a greater rate of emissions increases, the developed ones said that the issue could not be solved only by them. It’s time for systemic change. Otherwise, the economic principle that is set around the world; to make as many as possible resources into the garbage, is divergent from solving the problem. Every citizen should contribute and be responsible for reducing emissions, therefore, for the mitigation of the climate change. For the RA population is calculating 2 tons per person, which is very low than the world average (about 5.6 tons), for example in neighboring Azerbaijan is amounted 4 tons, in the U.S. A.- 18, in Qatar- 40 tons per capita. In 1990 Armenia had approximately 25 million tones of emissions with the same population.
As the emissions reduction is conditioned by the economic recession, our adopted policy is currently aimed at restraining the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, which is possible in the case of energy-saving technologies, better investment environment, reduce of deforestation and increase of tree planting. This policy is called a “low-carbon development policy.”
According to the Intergovernmental Experts Group even in the case of 4 tons of emissions per person around the world it would be difficult to restrain the rate of temperature increase. The European Union has announced that up to 2050 emissions should be reduced by 80 -95%, that is should not be used oil, gas, or coal, any more, but is it possible?
The climate system arranges the question naturally, if you want to maintain the climate system at the same level, not to be irreparable, we should sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Today the international aviation (internal aviation is not included) and navigation jointly are emitting about 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. To imagine that after 36 years, the airplanes will fly only with renewable biofuel, to put it mildly, is incredible. Even if the total emissions should be restricted with that, it is not enough to keep the1, 5oC threshold of temperature increase.
During the regular session of the subsidiary bodies of the Convention on Climate Change held on June 4-15 in Bonn a high-level ministerial dialogue was held.
It was focused on issues related to mitigation before 2020, as well as on key issues related to the universal climate agreement, which is set to be agreed in 2015. Several developed countries presented their positions and policies on the issue. However, misunderstandings refer to this process once again did not allow registering significant progress in the course of the dialogue. Although it was planned to put a negotiation text on the table at the end of the sessions, but it was also failed.
Due to the lack of consensus a decision was adopted to continue the discussions in the extra session to be held in October, 2014 aiming to adopt the negotiating text at the 20th session of the of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention to be held in Lima at the end of 2014.
Thereby, at best, the negotiations on the content of the Climate Change Convention new protocol can be started only in May, 2015.
And this means that there is only 7 months will remain until the deadline of the protocol (December, 2015, Paris) acceptance…

Mary Chaqryan
Armenian Aarhus Centers Press Officer
Tell. (+374)10 551364
E-mail: aarhusnews@gmail.com
Translated by Anush Beybutyan